To fly helicopters or not to fly helicopters....

[FerrariFlyer]

Important reading, especially for the younger pilot or those considering the profession...

https://gotsky.net/pilot-shortage-4-key-factors/

[Icefather]

It’s good stuff. Though it’s based on the American market. Until Oz/kiwiland try a similar thing all it may do is open up the visas in US to Rotary pilots. And then maybe transition and comeback dual rated?

[Hello Pilots]

Aaaahhhh the old “due to scheduled retirements”
Where have I heard that before

[FerrariFlyer]

There are a substantial number of airline pilot retiring over the coming years. Who really knows what is happening in the broader helicopter industry in terms of age demographics, projected shortfalls into the future etcetera.

In turn, the industry over there is now seeing airlines in the USA commence hiring of rotary guys and largely paying for their conversions. One airline was recently offering $50k US towards the assisting with the conversion. That’s nearly $70k AUD! A lot of money to get pilots over to keep their planes flying.

[havick]

The big difference between the USA and Australian Airline model is that in the USA part 121 ops have mandatory retirement age of 65.

Just American Airlines alone will have close to 1000 mandatory retirements every year for the next 10-15 years. Ie in the next 15 years almost the entire seniority list of 15,000 odd pilots will be completely replaced. Delta, United etc are all in similar situation.

Then there will be another lull in hiring for 10-20 years and the cycle repeats.

Interestingly at least with American Airlines, they are somewhat consolidating their fleet types to reduce training events. Whenever one 777 or A330 captain retires it triggers seven training events with pilots below them shifting seats and equipment.

[Gonsky]

Gloablly airine stocks are falling, most of them are missing revenue numbers and getting hit. Your projecting zero changes in the industry in the next 10~20 yrs? Well the last 10~20 yrs has had a major change on the industry with newer more efficent aircraft and now what seems to be a race to the bottom in regards to ticket pricing, more automation and less employment. The larger airlines are not even going to be able to cover their super payouts for current staff.

Even with that they are still not making the $$, the next point is manpower and it you look as far a the single pilot cockpit proposal for instance that will save the industy another 100~150 bil per year it not more when you really work out the numbers.

Yet the possiblity of that happening is less as we all know what happens when you get a slightly unbalanced pilot in that position. The "research" as it is aptly named always states that passengers want pilots in the plane, yet there is actually no real study that has been completed.

So the chance of pilotless cockpits is actually higher than single pilot cockpits. So double the previous figure of 100~150 bil and you now have serious reasons to change. Yet if they went to single pilot they don't need the numbers.

Finally add to the fact that in the last few years you have had a completley different demographic flying. That demographic is the $19.95 no baggage and bring your own parachute. The top end as in first class is almost non-existant anymore and even more people are getting totally jacked off when flying due to the horendous waiting times and immigration lines.

I know alot of business guys that just don't see the point in flying anymore, add to that the massive change in telecoms over the years and it is far easily to just stay at the office/home/farm and skype someone. Even the private side is falling and there are massive numbers of PJ's on the market and even more getting built and very few buyers.

Regards,

[havick]

Gloablly airine stocks are falling, most of them are missing revenue numbers and getting hit. Your projecting zero changes in the industry in the next 10~20 yrs? Well the last 10~20 yrs has had a major change on the industry with newer more efficent aircraft and now what seems to be a race to the bottom in regards to ticket pricing, more automation and less employment. The larger airlines are not even going to be able to cover their super payouts for current staff.

Even with that they are still not making the $$, the next point is manpower and it you look as far a the single pilot cockpit proposal for instance that will save the industy another 100~150 bil per year it not more when you really work out the numbers.

Yet the possiblity of that happening is less as we all know what happens when you get a slightly unbalanced pilot in that position. The "research" as it is aptly named always states that passengers want pilots in the plane, yet there is actually no real study that has been completed.

So the chance of pilotless cockpits is actually higher than single pilot cockpits. So double the previous figure of 100~150 bil and you now have serious reasons to change. Yet if they went to single pilot they don't need the numbers.

Finally add to the fact that in the last few years you have had a completley different demographic flying. That demographic is the $19.95 no baggage and bring your own parachute. The top end as in first class is almost non-existant anymore and even more people are getting totally jacked off when flying due to the horendous waiting times and immigration lines.

I know alot of business guys that just don't see the point in flying anymore, add to that the massive change in telecoms over the years and it is far easily to just stay at the office/home/farm and skype someone. Even the private side is falling and there are massive numbers of PJ's on the market and even more getting built and very few buyers.

Regards,

Are you a millionaire yet? You seem to be the expert on everything.

[Gonsky]

Nothing about being an expert just simple economics.

Airlines for the first time in the last 50 yrs now have labour costs higher than fuel costs. In 2016 the numbers were 22% labour and 21% fuel, 2018 is expected to be over 30.9% labour and 20.5% fuel. Labour currently is at a shortage therefore have a barganing power, and higher wages are the result which is the last thing airlines want.

So as airlines are all mostly interconnected the best way to reduce labour costs is to imply a shortage so as there will be more pilots trying to get into the industry. Additionally the US change a few years ago whereas you needed 1500 hrs had a big impact, yet in a couple more yrs those that didn't have the hours will be prettty close.

The result will be an oversupply of pilots and airlines can reduce wage pressure on their botton line. Quantas is tring to bring in 500+ pilots all on smoe immigration gig which will mean lower wages and the individuals will be tired to the airline for a long time as they are getting promised residency. If they train up pilots they could easily lose them to other operators.

This is why carriers are offering bonuses to come over, it seems like a lot to pay out at the beginning yet in the long run they will be able to reduce salaries in a few more yrs when the industry gets even tighter.

US airline have a history of going bankrupt and then restructuring, the main part of that restructuring is always renegotiating labor contracts.

The airline industry is running at a profit of US7.67 per passenger or a little over 4.2%, that is a small margin for huge risk. You can get that return in many other asset classes with zero risk. This is why airlines go under never endingly, 25 and counting in the EU alone so far this year.

Regards,

[havick]

You honestly have no idea of the real shortage of airline pilots in the US.

[Twistgrip]

[Gonsky]

Quantas is telling everyone there is a shortage of pilots, you talk to pilots and there are no shortages? You continally tell everyone that the US is the land of opportunity yet that has all changed very quickly due to one man.

I remember you went to the US some time ago as you asked me for advice about your superannuation, so you basically went over before the current administation.

Anyone over the age of 30 will have a hell of a time trying to get there and only to find that when they do finally get there will be so many pilots that wages will be nothing and they will be left wondering why they packed up the world and went in the first place. I never said there was not a shortage of pilots i said that no matter what there will be a oversupply in a few years. Exactly what the airlines want, hence the fact they pay people sign on bonuses as it is a little amount up front for the airlines yet they will definately get it all back in the coming yrs. Also they can account for bonuses differently so they could have current tax advantages for the airlines. Airlines don't think next financial yr they think next 10 yrs++, so always good to have a plan.

Under the current administration no matter what visa class you attempt to get into the US on now it is all a train wreak. even eb5 investor visa's where you basically just hand over 500k to buy residency now has over a 2.5 yr waiting list before they even start processing your paperwork. even those on correct visa and have been for yrs are getting thrown out, H1-B visa's have also become a nighmare.

So add to that the current administration starting a global trade war with pretty well every trading partner has done nothing but cause a global slow down in almost every sector. Some how the ailine business is immune to these factors? The US dollar is going higher and most others are falling, due to the inverse relationship with currencies. So fuel is priced in US dollars so immediately everyone not in US dollars is feeling the heat. I mentioned some time ago that the AUD was going to fall and it has and will probably be heading to 64~66 against the US and has also fallen against most other trading partners.

So that will make travel outside Aus expensive. China has had a massive slowdown again due to the US trade wars and that will in turn affect internal spending and travel, for instance australian coal exports to china have gone from hero to zero in under 6 months due to all this. How many people do you think that will affect, industries these days can be gone in months whereas they used to take yrs.

Only because of the Arimco IPO going under has the oil price stablised around 70, otherwise it would have keep going to 100 as the Saudi's wanted oil high for the IPO valuation. If oil was at that level then the airline business could have been mothballing aircraft again like they did in 2009.

Australia and almost every economy is slowly moving into a downward phase and so thhat means that people are not going to be spending $$ to go travelling. The segment that was going bananas over the last few yrs is the 19.95 special, so airlins left right and centre have been going after that and hence their margin is a little over 4%. Any other industry would close immediately if they were working on margins that low, as said above you can get more if you invest in certain issues of Australian Bond's and they are completely risk free. So airline have zero buffer when times get tough, hence their MO is go into charpter 11 and they battle with the unions and end up getting emplyment contracts redone. Nothing new has been going on for yrs, so the best way to solve the problem is bring on 1000's more pilots and make the whole labour supply side issue go away.

US airlines go bankrupt never endingly, if you want to start looking at the financials and not the airline properganda you may be better informed. Better informed means better prepared.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... ted_States

You guys always take everything personally, which in many ways i understand. Yet it is all just business and the quicker you understand that the better off you will be. Everyone in any industry is either let go for incompetency of because the company cannot pay anymore. Most of the time people are not incompetant, so it always leaves the same reason.

Regards,

[havick]

Not taking it personally, simply pointing out with just normal attrition here every major airline’s seniority list in the US will be retired and replaced over the next 15 years or so due to mandatory retirement.

Those figures don’t factor in the double retirements factor if the 40-50 year olds flowing/getting hired at mainline now which make up a fair chunk of the new hires at the majors.

You simply haven’t looked at the demographics.

That doesn’t even take into account cargo carriers, corporate gigs, fractional etc

[Gonsky]

Airlines don't work on demographics, they work on financial returns. 4% is not a return it is a disaster waiting to happen.

Financials always win every battle, without dollars nothing works. Having a demographic that could be potentially flying does not mean they will be flying. Every major airline in the last few years has posted major losses, even Singapore which has been the strongest for ever. Again the slightest slowdown in the EU and UK has cased over 25 airline collapses, all because they are running the 19.95 specials and running too close to the wind.

This was all before the current imbecile in the WH, so this year is certainly going to be interesting.

Cargo is down because global trade is down again thanks to the idiot in charge. The PJ market is saturated and there are slots everywhere for new bulids, and everyone is selling their jets.

So there may be projections of billions more flying but they may not have the disposable income to do so. Projections look great in the boardroom when everyone is slapping themselves on the back, yet they only create issues for the workforce then they do not eventuate. And guess who is the first to go?

The US is great when your young, i lived there for over 10 yrs from the late 80's. Problem is that the system has all changed, now you are tired to a company and if they decide to change the rules you can either do nothing or leave, once you leave your immigration is cancelled and your out of there. If you want to join another company you have to start the whole process again. So it is easy as if your young, add the wife and kids and the whole gig becomes a potential train wreak.

Regards,

[havick]

Got it, the world is going to end and robots will take over.

[Gonsky]

Funny didn't mention any of that;

My comments were based on the "Don't believe everything you read on the US airline recruitment paraphernalia brochure"

Regards,

[FerrariFlyer]

Havick, it’s coming and you can’t stop it!

[SuperF]

Funny didn't mention any of that;

My comments were based on the "Don't believe everything you read on the US airline recruitment paraphernalia brochure"

Regards,

but i saw it on FB, it must be true...

[havick]

Funny didn't mention any of that;

My comments were based on the "Don't believe everything you read on the US airline recruitment paraphernalia brochure"

Regards,

Yes but fortunately i can do simple addition and subtraction.

[Mallard]

In 2016 the numbers were 22% labour and 21% fuel, 2018 is expected to be over 30.9% labour and 20.5% fuel.

Regards,

Interested to see the data from where these numbers came from.... particularly the breakup between pilots, engineers, cabin crew, ground crew and management etc.

[Evil Twin]

The big difference between the USA and Australian Airline model is that in the USA part 121 ops have mandatory retirement age of 65.

Just American Airlines alone will have close to 1000 mandatory retirements every year for the next 10-15 years. Ie in the next 15 years almost the entire seniority list of 15,000 odd pilots will be completely replaced. Delta, United etc are all in similar situation.

Then there will be another lull in hiring for 10-20 years and the cycle repeats.

Interestingly at least with American Airlines, they are somewhat consolidating their fleet types to reduce training events. Whenever one 777 or A330 captain retires it triggers seven training events with pilots below them shifting seats and equipment.

Have to agree with that, one of the theory instructors at flight safety was telling me that American airlines alone have a need for 4000 pilots over the next 5 years while the U.S. flight training industry was predicted to produce 4500 pilots over the same period, both of his sons were taking the fixed wing route over rotary. On the subject of self flying aircraft I doubt very much that public acceptance of pilot-less or even single pilot aircraft will change over the next decade or two. Self driving cars haven't been very successful in their testing having also killed and the court of public opinion is incredibly fickle.